The opposite side of this coin is that if your entry isn’t tagged with an AOE there is a teaser indicating the highest finish possible for your entry. For example, DD2, currently ranked 104 in the status report, can still finish in first place. Given that DD2 was the only entry to pick Michigan to win it all I’m pretty sure that DD2’s fortunes ride solely on the backs of the Wolverines.

To get an idea of how tumultuous this weekends games were on our pool one only has to look at the Distribution report. Duke was the most favored team in our pool to win it all (22 entries) followed by Villanova (20). Doing some quick math these two losses represent over 1/3 of the pool having had their bracket champion lose in the 2nd round.

The Brandy award is still a conceptually wide open race – PadRat has a total possible score of only 105, and picked only 1/2 of the games correctly this round. 5 entries had a worse 2nd round, having picked 7 of the game winners. Ouch. Also at the bottom of the heap are “Boom Goes The Dynamite” and “BBJones”.

Among those entrants that had a slightly better weekend, the “Shizcity” series are looking particularly good in the possible points rankings (1, 3, and 5th place). “Big 10 Love” had the best weekend having picked 13/16 correct winners with Duke being the one blemish (picked to lose in the championship). “Team America” currently maintains a clean Final 8, impressive at this stage of the tournament.

If you are looking to get a probabilistic view of your chances, and your entry is still AOE free, the “Pool possibilities” report will give you the chances (assuming that each of the remaining possible 32,768 outcomes are equally probable. Which they’re not) of finishing in first or in the top 5. Based on this report, “Shizcity 4” and “Big 10 Love” (the top two most probable winners) together represent 21% of the winning game outcomes.

Looking at our distribution report, there were 7 entries that picked ‘Nova to bow out in the 2nd round, though 31 having them making it to the championship, 20 winning it all. You can guess who’s happier now!

Given the upsets the sorted by possible report is probably a better indicator than the standard status report- in the current point ranking 2 entries in the top 15 leaders have Villanova winning it all. That being said the leader, “Big 10 Love” DOES have a clean slate in the Great 8 (including Wisconsin). “Boiler Pete” was the beneficiary of two of the aforementioned upsets, but is going strongly against archetype picking Purdue to win it all (one of three such entries).

All 4 of the top entries in the status report sorted by possible points currently have clean G8s, 2 wistfully thinking of a Purdue victory, one Duke, and one UNC. Which is to say to the remaining 117 entries that there are many games left to play before you can give up on your entry.

Even current cellar dwellers “Starbucks Fan” and “rather be knitting” have respectable possible scores of 141 and 145 respectively. If you go to the hoopness site you can perform “Dynamic Status” reports to see what would happen if, for example, UCLA wins it all. Enjoy…

If you rank the standings by Possible Score, you’ll see an ominous name among the four that are tied for first.  That TKC1 and TKC2 you see is none other than defending champion Tom Chan, also our only two time champion.  Fellow first place “possibles” J1 and BCG2 stand advised.  Evidently the secret to doing well is to ensure that your entry has a number in it.

As for the other end of the competition…….all we can say is poor Tom Crean.  Two crushing events, only 36 hours apart.  First he gets fired within the first hour of the commencement of the tournament, and after a special one-time late admission allowing him to get a Hoops Madness entry in, he goes and blows it when his championship pick, Marquette, gets blown out in their first game.  All of this and the embarrassment of being John Harbaugh’s brother-in-law.  How much misfortune can one person sustain?  Obviously Tom shoots to the bottom of the pile in possible points.  And we’ve made sure all forks and knives have been collected from his house.

Speaking of the SMU upset, several entries were dealt near-death blows as a result of the loss, two of which had them going all the way to the Final Four.  Leaping into the race for the Brandy Award, joining Rather Be Knitting and Monk Madness (and the omnipresent DDx), are Jumbos and Bloodhound.  Welcome to the race!  It should be noted that Jumbos is a past tournament champion, and you have to wonder where it all went wrong.  Another tragic story of riches to rags.

The loss by Maryland has dealt a severe blow to two of our entries who had them going to the Final Four.  Oops!  As a result, both Monk Madness and former semi-finalist Rather Be Knitting have vaulted into the lead for the Brandy Award.  Both of those entries also have Louisville reaching the Final Four too, so obviously the Cardinals are doomed.

Intentionally terrible Dave Ditlevsen wasn’t even able to do quite that bad, although his two entries have the worst “Current” totals.  Despite his intentions to pick as many games wrong as possible, he still got games “wrong” in nine and seven cases – wrong meaning right, that is.  Or is right wrong?  Never mind – it’s late and your admin staff’s brains are mush after watching 16 games, 47 Geico ads, 38 Capital One ads, and 29 ads for one type of lawnmower or another.  We need a bit of rest in order to prepare for an entire day of Bill Raftery.

It might be described as the most widely predicted upset ever as 52 or our entrants picked number 12 Middle Tennessee State to defeat the number 5 Middle Minnesota Tech.  That’s just short of half of all picks.  Are our tournament participants smart or what?  Wait, hold that thought, as one of our entries had the Golden Gophers going all the way to (ahem) the Final Four.  Cue the Price Is Right fail horn, Waa Waa!  That shoots entry 2Legit right into an impressive early lead in the race to the Brandy Award.  Still plenty of time though.

We’ll be back after the second half of the first half or if there’s breaking news.  Like Seth Davis admitting he made an errant prediction.

Links to all of the picks and up to the hour tournament standings can be accessed by clicking on the “Quick Reports” menu item on the banner above.  In the meantime, please be sure to submit your payments so that you can continue to participate.  A reminder that entries without corresponding payments by the time the Sweet Sixteen rounds begin will not count.  If you need any assistance please don’t hesitate to contact tournament headquarters at hoopsmaster@eqemarchmadness.com.

[Snarky Comment added by Admin]

There are a few changes that your Hoops Madness Administrators have instituted this year.  One is a new email address.  Our old email domain died, so if you desire to communicate with us via email, please note that the new address is hoopsmaster@eqemarchmadness.com.  We no longer have access to the prior email domain, so please update your address books.

Second, and most important, is a change in the way we will be collecting your “contributions.”  The past logistics and the accounting process have resulted in a lot of financial complications, so we are instituting one single collection point, and that is a PayPal account, the link to which is displayed below.  Because of tardiness by an increasing number of entrants (and admitted failures on the part of your administrators) we are establishing a hard deadline by which we will require payment.  And that deadline is a short one – March 22nd.  That is the day prior to  the start Sweet 16 rounds.  If we do not have your payment in hand your entry will be deleted.  Please help us in the accounting process (and your chances to win) by making your contribution promptly.

Make payment here.  (Note that PayPal will indicate that you are “purchasing Custom Hoop Rings,” a technicality that we have had to implement.  Don’t ask, just play along, and no, you will not be getting a ring.)

So with that, we urge you to get started on your entries (or if you see fit you may wait until the play-in games have completed – the website will automatically update and adjust for the play-in winners).  Good luck in this years contest!