This is the stage of the tournament when you get to scratch your head and wonder “what if” – many of the teams that barely survived the first two rounds now look and play up to their seeding. Luckily for you, you can actually play “what if” with the “dynamic status report”. Enjoy.
Looking at the (new this year) newly colorful status report you can see a significant trend forming of the bottom of the standings being dominated by red. Not surprising. But visually interesting and less repetitive than discussing the “success” that DD3 has enjoyed. Also on the status report is the new “best finish” column and the dreaded first column asterisk indicating elimination from contention. As of the end of action today there are 64 entries that still have a chance to finish in the top 5.
Now available is the “possibilities” report which indicates that “quackquack” will finish in the top 5 in almost 20% of all possible (equally weighted) game outcomes, and finish in first in 12.3% of the outcomes. 3 entries follow with higher probabilities of finishing in the top 5 but lower probabilities of finishing first. You can also sort the possibilities report by “in the money” probability which indicates that “Toos N Twees” finishes in the top 5 in just shy of a quarter of remaining outcomes. Of course this is all a bit misleading as all outcomes AREN’T equally probable, but we’re getting close to the point of the tournament when that isn’t such a bad assumption. For example, the 2 “elite 8” match-ups currently in the books are both 1vs2 seeds. One can certainly argue that these are both toss ups.
Looking at the status report (by score) we see the top 2 positions held by TKC1 and TKC2, followed by another pool stalwart DWG1. TKC1 has a very impressive current score of 103, but has Michigan St. winning it all so has a much more modest total possible score of 143.
Since we’re playing with numbers – 42 of the 133 entries picked ALL 4 of today’s outcomes correctly, including Natasha Fatale’s good friend “Boris Badenov”. Of these 42 entries 13 have already been eliminated from contention to reach the podium. Which simply demonstrates that the first 2 rounds are make or break.
Enjoy the remaining 4 Sweet 16 games – we’re guaranteed at least one “bottom half” seed to advance along with a 6 or 7 seed.