Exciting finish to the tournament!

In a strange twist of the net the outcome in our pool was more certain than the game itself. And even that was close. In fact, for the first time in at least 6 months the tiebreaker was invoked twice in order to decide the final pool standings.

As previously noted, at the top of the heap, TKC2 (Tom Chan) was in relatively good shape with either Villanova or UNC winning the championship game except if Villanova won with a total score of 158 or more. With a final total score of 151 this was a closer finish than it seemed like it might be. Second place finisher Brandon Stout (keep that name in mind) was twisting on the spit hoping both that Villanova could hang on, but also that a few more buckets would drop. Sadly for Brandon this was not to be. With the scoring drought Tom became the first 2 time champion since… ever. Congrats, Tom!!

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In a rare occurrence, third place AND 5th place finisher Todd Schoentrup of the “Zag Nation” franchise failed to match last year’s 2nd place finish, but did polish up his resume. We’re pouring through the pool bylaws to see if there is a category worthy for finishing in 2nd, 3rd, and 5th places combined in two successive pools. We’re down to the fine print without any indications that such an award exists. We’ll hit the thesaurus next year if you can take 1st and 4th places.

Rounding out the top five, in fourth place was none other than the pool’s own Sven Cushing (“Toos N Twees”).

Just missing finishing in the neon lights was kzieg who lost out to Zag Nation 3 by a mere 5 points in the tie breaker.

And in the least surprising outcome of the evening, the Brandy Award (Brandy Stout. Ring a bell?) goes to pool slouch DD3 as previously discussed with a pretty unimpressive total score of 35 points. “Congratulations” are due (once again) to David Ditlevsen. Having achieved this outcome for 5 of the last 6 years David is encouraging pool HQ to reconsider the award. Given that the whole point of this award is to make it fun for pool administrators to make light of the plight of the less fortunate entries (a skill that we honed fairly well up until 2012) we believe that the illogical but somehow beguiling award of a free entry in the successive year for a poor effort this year is making this award overly attractive. Even though it shouldn’t be.

Ready for the Championship

With the two final four blow outs the championship game is set between the number 1 seed from the East (North Carolina) and the number 2 seed from the South (Villanova). In our tournament, the remaining entries with a rooting interest in the outcome number 9, one of which (quackquack) has ‘Nova winning it all, 5 having UNC winning it all, and the remaining vultures having picked “none of the above” to win it all.

What’s very interesting is that quackquack has a current score of 122, but will end up with 147 if Villanova wins the championship. The current first place entry, TKC2, already has 147 points, with a possible of 172 if UNC wins. Which means that if Villanova wins, quackquack and TKC2 are locked in a tie – with quackquack having a tiebreaker of 185 total points in the final, and TKC2 having 130. So TKC2 is in relatively good shape – only losing 1st place if Villanova wins in a high scoring game. quackquack wins if Villanova wins and wins in a high scoring game. If Villanova does defeat UNC then 5th place will also be decided by a tie breaker between Zag Nation 3 (135 points) and kzieg (128 points) – could be a nail biter for these two entrants.

Final Four set…

With Syracuse upsetting Virginia the last day of action before the final 4 presented some exciting action AND the triumph of a lower seed. Both Saturday games also had marginal upsets with 2nd seeds beating 1 seeds.

With the final four set we now have the … “Final Four Report”. We’re working on bringing this report to the left hand pane, but in the meantime you can reach it from the hoopness site. The final four report presents all 8 remaining possible outcomes. We’ve got 4 entries in the running for first place and one potential outcome that would result in a tiebreaker scenario (if Villanova beats N. Carolina, TKC2 and quackquack tie with vastly different tiebreakers). “Brock is a Bum” wins it all in three of the remaining 7 outcomes, TKC2 in two of the remaining outcomes, and Toos N Twees and quackquack each winning in one of the remaining outcomes. If Syracuse beats Oklahoma we’ll see a three way tie for 5th place.

None of the outcomes will be an outstanding score from a pool historic standpoint – the winning score will be between 174 and 144 which is in line with the past 5 years of winning scores.

Sweet 16 completes with NO upsets, and only one exciting game…

That being between #10 Syracuse and #11 Gonzaga. Went to the higher seed (Syracuse), naturally.

In the pool things are becoming clearer. At least for 77 entries where clearer signifies that for the entrant it’s either spring training time or they can root for their actual rooting interests as they have no hope of finishing in the top five in our pool.

quackquack is still at the top of the possibilities ranking, though I would guess that this will take a hit if Oregon falters (currently behind to Oklahoma). In fact, with their chances of finishing in first being coincidentally exactly equal to 1/8, it would appear that quack^2’s hopes are pinned solidly on Oregon winning it all (turns out not to be true. quackquack needs Villanova to win it all. who’d a thunk it?). There are 19 entries still with a shot at winning it all, and if you click on the entry name of any of these entries in the possibilities report you will see the winning outcomes for that entry. But you have to view the report on the hoopness site for this to work.

Back to the game…

First half of the sweet sixteen is complete with NO upsets

This is the stage of the tournament when you get to scratch your head and wonder “what if” – many of the teams that barely survived the first two rounds now look and play up to their seeding. Luckily for you, you can actually play “what if” with the “dynamic status report”. Enjoy.

Looking at the (new this year) newly colorful status report you can see a significant trend forming of the bottom of the standings being dominated by red. Not surprising. But visually interesting and less repetitive than discussing the “success” that DD3 has enjoyed. Also on the status report is the new “best finish” column and the dreaded first column asterisk indicating elimination from contention. As of the end of action today there are 64 entries that still have a chance to finish in the top 5.

Now available is the “possibilities” report which indicates that “quackquack” will finish in the top 5 in almost 20% of all possible (equally weighted) game outcomes, and finish in first in 12.3% of the outcomes. 3 entries follow with higher probabilities of finishing in the top 5 but lower probabilities of finishing first. You can also sort the possibilities report by “in the money” probability which indicates that “Toos N Twees” finishes in the top 5 in just shy of a quarter of remaining outcomes. Of course this is all a bit misleading as all outcomes AREN’T equally probable, but we’re getting close to the point of the tournament when that isn’t such a bad assumption. For example, the 2 “elite 8” match-ups currently in the books are both 1vs2 seeds. One can certainly argue that these are both toss ups.

Looking at the status report (by score) we see the top 2 positions held by TKC1 and TKC2, followed by another pool stalwart DWG1. TKC1 has a very impressive current score of 103, but has Michigan St. winning it all so has a much more modest total possible score of 143.

Since we’re playing with numbers – 42 of the 133 entries picked ALL 4 of today’s outcomes correctly, including Natasha Fatale’s good friend “Boris Badenov”. Of these 42 entries 13 have already been eliminated from contention to reach the podium. Which simply demonstrates that the first 2 rounds are make or break.

Enjoy the remaining 4 Sweet 16 games – we’re guaranteed at least one “bottom half” seed to advance along with a 6 or 7 seed.

And Round 2 Is Complete

Well that was one heck of a second Round 2 half! Simultaneous last minute buzzer beaters, a miracle comeback for Texas A&M, and Spike, Samuel, and Chuck still haven’t gotten out of that car as they head to the games! In the end few of the favorites have been eliminated, but those who are out have shaped possibilities greatly. And if you are dismayed about all of the red marks on your bracket, here’s some encouraging news – even the top spots in our pool have at least two red marks in their Elite Eight. With the second number two seed, Xavier, going down, brackets have become as jumbled as Charles Barkley’s analysis. The best any entry did was 12 correct Round 2 picks and only three did that well.

Sitting at the top (using the Possible Points sort exclusively now) is DWG4, although likely related entry, DWG1, moved strongly into contention as one of those few that nailed twelve of the sixteen Round 2 picks.

As for those picking the underdogs, only ten entries have Wisconsin going to the Sweet Sixteen and only four have Syracuse moving on that far.

Notable at the bottom of the selections is the fact that contender Bekbil2sr got four picks right while DD3, who managed only three correct Round 2 picks, greatly enhanced his chance of nailing another free entry when finalist choice Iowa was knocked out of contention. The lone remaining Elite Eight pick for DD3 is Indiana and with North Carolina as their next opponent, the Brandy Award is just about locked up.

First day of the second round is over

The brackets somewhat righted themselves with only 2 upsets- Gonzaga(11) beating Utah(3) and Indiana (5) beating Kentucky (4). Reviewing the pac-12’s performance this was perhaps not such an upset, and since when did Gonzaga fall back to Cinderella status ?

The top 5 entrants all have 7 of the final 8 still viable – pretty impressive at this point! The Michigan State loss has had immense impact tournament-wide, the result being that every Hoops Madness entry has at least one incorrect Elite Eight pick.

Meanwhile, the race for the Brandy Award has taken on new urgency with Bekbil2sr swooping in from out of nowhere to contest DD3 for the lead. His/her predicted champion, Butler, faltered like a Kentucky three point attempt and with six of eight Elite Eight teams gone, presents a real challenge to early favorite DD3. They both got a mere two picks right in the first half of the second round and at this point DD3 is just two points ahead, but they’re tied in the Possible Points option. We’re happy to report, though, that the original Brandy total score is safe once again as both teams managed to surpass the threshold score of 30.

At The End of the First Round

Holy cow, what a first round! 13 of the 32 lower seeded teams came out on top including a 13, a 14, and a 15, all on the same day – the first time that’s ever happened! And can you believe that our current first place entry, TKC2, picked 27 of the first 32 correctly? Don’t be surprised – that’s a former Hoops Madness champion. But now that we have those very high profile red/slashed marks in the Standings Reports, you’ll note that two of his Elite Eight picks have been knocked out, and that’s more than 23 other entries that still have seven entries alive. Perhaps most promising are the six entries whose Elite Eights are all still alive.

The DD3 entry has a very firm grasp on last place now that six of his final eight choices have been eliminated. The best possible score for DD3 is 79, despite having accurately selected 13 of the first round winners. Ominously DD3 is solidly in last in both the Current and Possible Points sorts.

On a positive note, the dreaded asterisks have yet to make an appearance on anyone’s entry, so it’s fair to say that it’s still anyone’s contest to win! Yes, even those who had Cal and Michigan State matching up in the Championship Game. Don’t break out your piccolos and tears just yet.

What’s With All These Red Marks??

So you’re checking the standings and now you see teams marked in red in strike-through font. Yes, this is a new feature that provides a visual indication of just how many picks you screwed up. You may also take heart by realizing that many others also have many red marks among their selections, especially the entry labeled “Pac 12,” whose four total “red” teams demonstrates just how ill-advised it was to pick Pac 12 teams among the finalists. In general, more red marks to the left mean you’re probably not going to do too well. BUT!!!! With the huge number of upsets that seem to be occurring, that’s not in any way an absolute.

Another handy change is the fact that the Current Standings report and the Possible Points Standings report are now combined into one report. A handy little drop-down box allows you to toggle back and forth between the “sorted by score” option and the “sorted by possible score” option. Very revealing for entries like “Risky Business” who stands solidly on top in the “sorted by score” display yet is far down the list in the “sorted by possible points” display. Then again all of those red marks, primarily the one on the far left, might have foretold that discrepancy.

Finally don’t forget the Dynamic Report option that allows you to pretend that Stephen F Austin beats West Vir….ooops, bad example. With this report you can input any scenario and see how it might affect your entry and standings. Pretty cool, especially when you’re trying to justify to the family CFO how your entry might blossom into an untold fortune! You can access that report by clicking on the “Review or Print Entry” option on the banner menu then choosing View Reports.

After the First Half of the Second Day….

The standings have shifted dramatically due to the plethora of upsets that have occurred today. And now the differences between the rankings by Current Points and Possible Points are significant. For instance under Current Points Risky Business stands alone in first place with 19 of 24 picks being correct. Unfortunately in the Possible Points sort, Risky Business stands alone in 87th place, ironically two places below Upset Central. Even the upset pickers can’t pick the upsets!

However, two DWG entries, DWG1 and DWG4, dominate the standings on both sorts! In fact by Current Points DWG entries constitute another three picks tied at ninth! It’s good to be a DWG…..right now.

In the race for the Brandy Award the competition is even fiercer. We have a new strong contender, yanncancook, whose two finalists, Michigan State and Baylor both got bounced in their first games. Former contender DD3 has jumped all the way to 95th place, but coming on strong is DD2 holding down position number 129. It’s not good to be a DD….right now.

Biggest Upset Ever Crushes All Brackets

With Michigan State going down to 15th seeded Middle Tennessee, every entry, yes EVERY entry in the Hoops Madness Tournament, got the pick wrong. With 119 entries predicting MSU going to at least the Elite 8, including 32 having Sparty going all the way to the title, bracket selectors throughout the Hoops Madness tournament resemble last year’s Villanova crying piccolo girl.

And The Upsets Keep on Coming

The first four games of Day 2 saw all but one of the higher seeded teams get eliminated. At this point half of the lower seeded teams have moved on in the tournament, including two 11’s and two 12’s With the alma maters of all pool administrators having been bounced, interest in the tournament is waning greatly. Three pool entries still lead the way in the Current Points ranking, but Fensterrapin has been replaced by UConn Arising. With UConn a 9 seed, things look promising indeed!

At the other end, DD3 has reclaimed the lead in the race for horrific guessing, but closely on his heels is an entry that seems to prove that ranking teams based on their cheerleaders is probably not such a good idea.

Day 2 Begins With Three Tied At Top

With lower seeded teams taking seven of the sixteen contests yesterday it should be no surprise that the entry labeled Risky Business is among the top entries. A look at the picks shows some bold choices indeed, but that’s what you have to do to stand out in the race for Hoops Madness glory. Along with TKC2 and Fensterrapin, only one incorrect pick exists among the leaders. Close on the heels are 16 more entries that got 14 of the 16 games right.

We are now able to provide you with the rankings by Possible Points in addition to the leaders by Current Points. This is unfortunate news for four of the bottom ranked entries that had Purdue either going all the way or in the finals. This also means that there is a temporary reprieve for leading Brandy Award contender, DD3, who staged a huge comeback in the late games, having now picked seven total games correctly. Also noteworthy is 130th ranked zona zoo, who predicted a now departed U of A win plus a tiebreaker final tally of 15 points. In the Dean Smith days of the four corners offense this might have been possible, but today it would make for a very unpopular Championship game.

The highlight of the day, at least to viewers who frequent Twitter and to courtside announcers, was the abuse sustained by Arizona coach Sean Miller’s shirt. The nattily attired coach quickly became quite unnatty by thoroughly soaking through his shirt, leading many to compare his endocrine system to that of Airplane pilot Ted Striker. Admittedly it is Spring Break for many right now, but Sean would do well to refrain from the wet t-shirt contest participation until after…..oh, that’s right, he is in fact free to participate in such frivolities.

Sean Miller Abuses Another Dress Shirt

Day 1 is done…

3 teams are tied for first place having made only one incorrect pick, each making an incorrect pick on a different game (TKC2 having picked Baylor, Fensterrapin Arizona, and Risky Business picking USC). A pretty impressive start to the pool. But a long way to go – for some reason it’s rare to see one entry run the table end to end. At either end of the spectrum. But even DD3 has a potential score of 202, so the first day’s tally of 7/16 still isn’t enough to put the Brandy Award on the mantel. Yet.

Although we are accustomed to prattling on about the “Status by Possible score” at this point in the tournament, this report is no longer pre-packaged by our hoopness friends. It IS possible to pull it up using the Dynamic Status Report which offers many other fun opportunities for those of you home … “sick”. You can put in results that didn’t happen (say, for example, that you’ve had “Tribute” ricocheting between your ears but you missed the last few minutes of the game and wanted to live, at least for an instant, in a world where USC made a freethrow or two at the end of the game. Fear no longer – go ahead and Enter that victory (and make Risky Business’s day perfect, even if only for pretend). All results will be updated in your little fantasy world. You can also enter game outcomes before they’re official…

Using this tool to look at the status report isn’t too informative at this point – with relatively few entries having picked Purdue (78 – this one hurt the most entries), Baylor (42), or Seton Hall (19) to go beyond the second round the carnage caused by their losses is limited. However, in terms of potential scores there are the top three tied for first, and then only 6 more teams tied for 4th (as opposed to 15 teams having picked 14 or 15 game outcomes correctly so far). Don’t fail to check out the dynamic status report – it’s fascinating.

Half of the First Day’s Games Done – Three Still Perfect

With one quarter of the first round’s games complete underdogs are at .500. And our leading teams number three who sport a perfect record at this point. The highly reliable 12 beats 5 struck again, dashing the hopes of three of our entrants who had the Boilermakers going all the way, and maintaining a perfect batting average for 12th seeded teams.

Meanwhile, perennial Brandy Award contender, Dave Ditlevsen, is strongly in contention to grab yet another free entry, having picked only two of the first eight games correctly. Adding credence to his first place standing is the fact that he has Purdue in the Final Four. Can anyone else step up and pick as badly as the DD3 entry?

The First Big Upset – Six Still Undefeated

The always reliable 12-beats-5 seed has struck and a mere 17 of our entries picked it – Yale over Baylor! Incredibly six of our entries remain undefeated. One of those should not surprise you, former Champion “ratherbeknitting.” Apparently knitting and basketball skills are closely related. Not to be outdone, another former Champion, Utter Kaos, sits among the elite six. With six games complete, lower seeded teams have won half of their contests. Are you lamenting your choosing to click the “Start with Higher Seeded Teams” button?”

March Madness Song Lyrics!

After two games it’s an 80-way tie for first place! OK, it’s early, but that’s a promising start. Only two entries have all goose eggs so far. Competition for the Brandy Award looks to be a true free-for-all!

More importantly, we stumbled onto what may be today’s greatest find, the lyrics to the CBS Madness Song, so named because the frequency of its performance will induce madness to any devoted viewer. Regardless, we think you’ll enjoy finally figuring out (and identifying with) the meaningful words that accompany this horrific tune.